Question 1Â a) Quantitative Risk Analysis gives the project managers ability to understand how the p
Question 1Â
a) Quantitative Risk Analysis gives the project managers ability to understand how the project schedule will be affected if certain risks occur and as a result, project managers manage their projects betterâ€. Using relevant examples of a project of your choice, discuss the statement.
b) A company has to decide which of the three advertising strategies (project) to adopt. Project A is advertising on NTV, project B is on WBS and project C is a radio advert in Luganda on CBS. The marketing Department has estimated that the sales and their probability under each alternative plan are given in the table below:
PROJECT A PROJECT B PROJECT C Sales ($ ) Probability Sales ($) Probability Sales ($) Probability 8,500 0.35 9,000 0.46 6,500 0.48 15,000 0.15 12,500 0.18 9,000 0.22 12,000 0.3 17,000 0.25 11,500 0.16 14,000 0.2 18,000 0.15 20,000 0.14
The Firm’s Profit is 38% of sales.
Required:
i)Â Calculate the expected profit under each project.
ii) Present the data in the table above on a bar chart
iii) Calculate the standard deviation of the distribution of profits for each project.       Â
iv) What is the coefficient of variation for each project?
v) Which of the three projects is more risky?
vi)Â Â Â Â Taking into consideration the risk attitudes of managers, which project should the company choose?
vii)Â Â Â Comment on the limitations of this model in the analysis of project risks.
C) Â Why is maximization of the expected value not a valid criterion in decision making subject to risk? Under what conditions would that criterion be valid?